In the year of NCN’s 15th anniversary, in the NCN podcast, we talk about the future of Poland – 10 to 15 years from now. About demography, migration and the labour market, but also about the role of science in making sense of these processes and about the conditions of scientific work.
Social, economic and technological changes have clearly accelerated. We ask whether, under conditions of such volatility and a strong impact of external factors, it is possible today to answer the question of what Poland will look like in 10 to 15 years. According to the guests of #podcastNCN – yes, although with important caveats. The conversation, hosted by Anna Korzekwa-Józefowicz, featured Dr hab. Paweł Kaczmarczyk, Professor at the University of Warsaw, Director of the Centre of Migration Research at the University of Warsaw, and Dr Michał Myck, Director and Member of the Management Board of the Centre for Economic Analysis (CenEA), Professor at the Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences. The conversation concerns the topics they have studied for years: migration, demography, the labour market and technological change, as well as the consequences of these processes for science and public policy.
As Paweł Kaczmarczyk notes, the last decade has brought about a structural change. “Poland has changed from a typical country of emigration into a country of immigration, one people are more likely to come to than leave. This means a whole range of new challenges, but also opportunities.” Labour-market data already show the scale of this change: foreign nationals account for around 7–8 per cent of those in employment, and in many sectors their presence has become a condition for maintaining employment dynamics.
Over the next dozen or so years, the share of foreign nationals in the labour market will continue to grow, approaching the levels currently observed in Western European countries. Poland’s migratory future will therefore increasingly depend not on whether migrants will be needed, but on whether the state creates conditions conducive to their long-term presence, integration and use of their potential, including in areas requiring high qualifications.
At the same time, as the interviewee emphasises, migration is an area particularly sensitive to events that cannot be predicted in any model. “We may try to design policies, but what is of fundamental importance are external factors: the war in Ukraine, COVID, the situation at the Polish-Belarusian border. Reality may painfully verify our predictions.”
These processes overlap with profound demographic changes. Michał Myck points out that over the past 15 years life expectancy in Poland has increased by around 2.5 years, while fertility has declined. “The old-age dependency ratio was around 20 in 2010, today it is already 30, and by 2040 it will be around 40. These are huge changes with direct consequences for the labour market and public systems.”
From this perspective, the future of the labour market will depend not only on migration, but also on the state’s ability to invest in education, health and productivity, both with regard to Polish citizens and to children and young people with migration experience. “It is today’s education and healthcare system that will determine what the labour market will look like in 10 to 15 years,” Myck stresses.
The speakers also draw attention to the challenges facing science, especially in the social sciences, which provide the knowledge needed to design public policies and respond to long-term demographic and migration changes. Limited access to administrative data and the lack of long-term panel studies currently hinder the full use of this potential. “We would like to talk about the future, but to do so reliably, we must understand the present. If in 2040 we want to look back and understand how the lives of people in Poland have changed, we must start collecting these data today. Without data, we are in a more difficult position, not a lost one, but certainly a much more difficult one,” says Michał Myck.
An important thread of the conversation is also the impact of technological development on the way scientific research is conducted. AI-based solutions are already accelerating data analysis and changing the organisation of research teams’ work, and in the longer term they may influence models of collaboration and the evaluation of scientific achievements. “Technology can greatly help in implementing good ideas, but it will not replace researchers’ responsibility or the need for a reliable interpretation of results,” Michał Myck emphasises.
Paweł Kaczmarczyk points out, however, that the ability to take advantage of these changes also depends on institutional conditions. “If we want Polish science to be part of the global circulation of knowledge, we must create an environment in which it is possible to work normally and plan research over a longer horizon,” he says.
The latter part of the recording also discusses the impact of artificial intelligence on the labour market, the role of the social sciences in analysing economic and demographic processes, and the ethical and institutional challenges facing science under conditions of accelerated technological transformation.
The NCN podcast can be listened to on YouTube and on the Apple Podcasts and Spotify streaming platforms.
Selected statements
Poland 2040 – migration scenarios
Paweł Kaczmarczyk: “If we are talking about Poland in 2040, there is quite a lot that can already be said today in the area of migration, although with a very important caveat. The last decade was a breakthrough moment: Poland changed from a typical country of emigration into a country of immigration, one people are more likely to come to than leave. We can see this very clearly in labour-market data – foreign nationals now account for around 7–8 per cent of those in employment, and in many sectors their presence is absolutely crucial to sustaining economic activity. These are long-term processes, and everything suggests that this share will continue to grow in the coming years, perhaps even to levels known from Western Europe.
At the same time, it must be said clearly that migration is an area exceptionally vulnerable to external factors. Recent years have brought the war in Ukraine, earlier COVID, the migration crisis in Europe, and the situation at the Polish-Belarusian border. All this shows that even the best-designed policies may be brutally verified by events over which we have no control. Therefore, when talking about the future, we are always moving between scenarios – from positive ones, assuming the use of migrants’ potential, to those in which the lack of a long-term strategy leads to growing tensions and increasing vulnerability to shocks.”
Demography and the labour market
Michał Myck: “If we look at Poland from the perspective of 2040, the key word is structure. Over the past 15 years, average life expectancy has increased by around 2.5 years, while fertility has declined. This leads to a very rapid change in the population’s age structure. The old-age dependency ratio has risen from around 20 to 30, and by 2040 it will reach around 40. This means that there will be fewer and fewer people of working age for every older person.
These changes have enormous consequences for the labour market, productivity and public systems. We do not know exactly how the labour market will cope with this, because we do not know how quickly and in what direction technologies will develop. But one thing is certain: Poland’s future growth will depend to a very large extent on how we care today for the education and physical and mental health of children and young people – both Polish and immigrant. These are investments whose effects we will not see tomorrow, but without which 2040 may prove very difficult.”
Science and missed opportunities
Paweł Kaczmarczyk: “When I think about the future of Polish science, I see it as an integral part of the global knowledge-production system. And it is not just about attracting researchers from abroad or sending our researchers on fellowships. For me, the key issue is internationalisation at home – changing the way we educate, conduct research, and how universities and administration function. It is about the extent to which we ourselves become institutions that are open, flexible and capable of working in an international environment.
However, I have serious concerns that today we are losing a very good moment. We can see enormous tensions in the global science system, for example in the United States, where more and more researchers are considering changing their country of work. Meanwhile, instead of creating conditions that could attract them, we are piling up barriers – procedural, administrative, often completely unnecessary. These are not abstract problems. These are real obstacles that mean Poland is not taking advantage of its opportunity to become an attractive place for conducting research over the next 10 to 15 years.”
Data and research quality
Michał Myck: “If in 2040 we want to analyse in a meaningful way the lives of people in Poland – their labour-market activity, family decisions, quality of life – we must start collecting data today. Without long-term panel studies and real access to administrative data, Polish researchers remain in a more difficult position than their colleagues in Germany, the United Kingdom or the Netherlands. These data exist, but access to them is limited and complicated, which makes it harder to conduct research at the highest level.
On top of that, there is the issue of the quality of science in a world of rapidly developing artificial intelligence. AI accelerates analysis and the implementation of research projects, but at the same time it increases the risk of dishonest practices – from publications in predatory journals to the mass generation of content devoid of scientific value. If we do not build credible mechanisms of verification and fair competition in science, then by 2040 the problem of research quality may become one of the main factors limiting the development of the Polish science system.”
We also encourage you to watch previous episodes of the NCN video podcast:
- Research that pays off featuring Krzysztof Jóźwiak, Krzysztof Pyrć and Wojciech Fendler
- NextGen Science. The future is now Agata Starosta, Aneta Pieczka and Maciej Stolarski
- Science in a frontline country with Justyna Chodkowska-Miszczuk and Michał Parniak
- Business and basic research with Joanna Tyrowicz and Łukasz Woźny